Macro Links Feb 9th – Correction Territory

Macro Links Feb 9th – Correction Territory

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CORRECTION TERRITORY

Dow Jones plunges more than 1,000 points as volatility kept the markets in its grip – The Washington Post

The Dow Jones industrial average nosedived more than 1,000 points Thursday, registering another eye-popping loss for the closely-followed index, as wild trading and fears of rising interest rates around the world took hold of traders. The Dow as well as the S&P 500, a broader stock index, are now down more than 10 percent from their all-time highs, passing an important psychological barrier known as a “correction” for the first time in two years.

Market Tumble Wipes Out Almost $100 Billion From World’s Richest – Bloomberg

Swooning markets Thursday cost the world’s 500 richest people $93 billion in net worth, and 20 of them lost at least $1 billion each. Jeff Bezos, the world’s richest person, saw his fortune drop by $5.3 billion to $113.2 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, as his Amazon.com Inc. tumbled 4.7 percent on the day. Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Chairman Warren Buffett ’s wealth dropped $3.5 billion and Facebook Inc.’s Mark Zuckerberg lost $3.4 billion.

Dow Industrials Plunge Into Correction – WSJ

Thursday marked the fifth consecutive session that the Dow swung more than 500 points intraday from its high to its low. The return of volatility struck some investors as long overdue, rather than a threat to the stock rally, especially as an unusually long streak of calm trading lifted major indexes around the world to multiyear highs in 2017.

Global Stock Slump Continues – WSJ

The latest plunge in global stocks hit Asia Pacific on Friday after late heavy selling in the U.S. left the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 in correction territory for the first time in two years. Chinese big caps slumped again after underperforming Thursday. The Shanghai Composite dropped 3.5% to hit eight-month lows, just two weeks after hitting its latest two-year high.

Stocks Enter Correction as Rate-Hike Fears Return: Markets Wrap – Bloomberg

Pressure again came from the Treasury market, where another weak auction put gave bond bears ammunition, sending the 10-year yield to the highest in four years. Equity investors took bond signal to mean interest rates will push higher, denting earnings and consumer-spending power.

Stocks Plunge as Market Enters ‘Correction’ Territory – The New York Times

Trying to pinpoint the exact reasons for the last week’s tumble is a fool’s errand. But the most likely culprit appears to be fear that central banks will increase interest rates in an effort to fend off inflation and ensure that fast-growing economies don’t overheat. Those fears were stoked Thursday when the Bank of England warned that it might raise interest rates faster than investors had expected.

U.S. stocks selloff: Will machines make it worse? – Reuters

Machine-guided, numbers-obsessed fund managers could cause U.S. stock prices to weaken further as they adjust to the return of wild gyrations in global markets. Several years of generally low volatility, when shares have not experienced big day-to-day oscillations, in part due to money-printing and bond-buying policies pursued by the world’s major central banks, has led investors to shovel billions of dollars into some highly technical and risk-focused strategies.

Far From Unprecedented: Nine Selloffs Like This, and Nine Rebounds – Bloomberg

The selloff that’s been battering investors for nine days feels like the worst thing ever — it’s far from that. Nine times since the bull market began in 2009 have equities experienced stretches as gruesome as this one; each time the end of the world was averted.

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NEW US GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN

Government shuts down as budget bill stalls in Congress

The federal government shut down for the second time in three weeks Friday, driven to the brink by acute congressional dysfunction and pushed over it by the objections of a single conservative senator. The partial shutdown began just after midnight when the government, operating on the latest in a series of short-term spending bills, ran out of money because Congress missed its deadline to pass a new one. But the closure could be brief, with minimal disruptions to federal workers and others.

U.S. Veers Toward Temporary Shutdown as Spending Bill Delayed – Bloomberg

Congress is set to miss a midnight deadline to fund the U.S. government because of a Republican senator’s objections, but the lapse may last only a few hours as the House and Senate plan votes early Friday morning.

White House advises government agencies to prepare for shutdown as Congress struggles to pass budget ahead of midnight deadline – The Washington Post

The federal government headed toward its second shutdown in three weeks late Thursday as congressional leaders struggled to rally support for a sweeping half-trillion-dollar spending deal amid last-minute objections from a conservative in the Senate and attacks from the left and right in the House.

U.S. Funding Lapse Now Likely as House Votes Are Expected After Deadline – Bloomberg

The U.S. funding lapse is now likely as the House votes are expected after the midnight deadline, Washington time.“At this point, we expect next votes in the House to occur at very roughly 3:00-6:00 a.m.,” House Majority Whip Steve Scalise’s office says in email to lawmakers, Bloomberg News reports.

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WHITE HOUSE STAFFER DOMESTIC ABUSE ALLEGATIONS

White House Regrets Its Handling of Rob Porter Case: ‘We All Could Have Done Better’ – The New York Times

White House officials conceded Thursday that they regretted the way they handled accusations against Rob Porter, the staff secretary who resigned Wednesday after two former wives publicly accused him of abusing them. But they refused to provide any information about when President Trump’s most senior advisers first learned about the episodes.

White House officials knew about Porter’s abuse allegations – CNNPolitics

Senior aides to President Donald Trump knew for months about allegations of domestic abuse levied against top White House staffer Rob Porter by his ex-wives, even as Porter’s stock in the West Wing continued to rise, multiple sources told CNN on Wednesday.

“Beyond Disbelief”: John Kelly’s Defense of Rob Porter Roils the West Wing | Vanity Fair

Staff Secretary Rob Porter, who has been accused of abusing his former wives, is Kelly’s right hand—and dating Hope Hicks, one of Trump’s closest confidantes. But Kelly’s declaration that Porter is a man of “true integrity and honor” was seen as deeply tone deaf.

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CHINA VOLATILITY

Everything’s a Sell in China After $660 Billion Equity Wipeout – Bloomberg

Investors got a stark reminder of how fast their bets can turn in China, where the most bullish trades are falling apart. Traders are running out of places to hide in a nation where market declines have a habit of snowballing. Government bonds are offering little in the way of comfort, and even commodities are feeling the squeeze. Making matters worse is the prospect of seasonally tighter liquidity ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday.

China’s Yuan Toppled From Two-Year High as Trade Data Surprises – Bloomberg

China’s yuan sank the most since the aftermath of its shock 2015 devaluation, after data showed the country’s trade surplus more than halved last month, and investors speculated controls on outward cash flows will be eased. The surplus was much smaller than economists had expected, and was affected by a surge in imports on rising commodity prices as well as seasonal effects related to the Chinese New Year holiday.

China producer, consumer inflation cools in January – FT

Inflation in China slowed last month with a slowdown in consumer and producer price growth meeting economists’ expectations.

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AMAZON WHOLE FOODS

Amazon adds a new Prime benefit: Free Whole Foods delivery in two hours – The Washington Post

Amazon has begun delivering Whole Foods groceries — including meat, produce and alcohol — free and within two hours to Prime subscribers in four U.S. cities, bringing a new level of competition to the already booming food-delivery business. The service is available to shoppers in Austin (where Whole Foods is based), as well as Cincinnati (home to competitor Kroger), Dallas and Virginia Beach, with plans to expand “across the U.S.” this year, Amazon said in a statement.

Amazon Prime Whole Foods Delivery: Here’s How It Will Work | Fortune

Once a customer has placed an order, pickers—not necessarily Whole Foods employees—will manually collect the items from a nearby Whole Foods store and put them in “appropriate packaging.” The orders will then be given to Amazon Flex delivery drivers—contract drivers who, similar to Uber, drive their own cars but use Amazon’s routing app to make deliveries. These drivers also deliver items for Amazon, Prime Now, Amazon Fresh, and Amazon Restaurants.

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BITCOIN, CRYPTOCURRENCY, INITIAL COIN OFFERINGS

The Crypto Candidate for Congress – Bloomberg

It’s Forde’s expertise in cryptocurrency that’s attracted marquee Bitcoin evangelists such as Pete Briger of Fortress Investment Group; Brad Burnham of Union Square Ventures; the investor Mike Novogratz; and famed Facebook litigants Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, who founded the Gemini cryptocurrency exchange. “Brian understands the power of emerging technologies and how to foster and shape them in a way that has a positive impact on people and organizations,” says Tyler Winklevoss.

Crypto Hedge Fund Opens Early as Bulls Rush to Buy the Dip – Bloomberg

Investors rushing to bet on a cryptocurrency rally have prompted one hedge fund manager to take the unusual step of accepting new money in the middle of the month. Silver 8 Capital, whose bullish bets on digital assets helped propel its hedge fund to a 771 percent gain last year, told new and existing clients it will allow mid-month subscriptions after getting several requests from investors to boost their exposure in the wake of a $500 billion selloff in virtual currencies over the past four weeks. The Florida-based manager, which invests in digital assets, early-stage companies and publicly-traded securities, usually only accepts new money at the start of each month.

Cryptocurrency exchange Binance suspends trading – FT

The outage at the trading venue, one of the world’s biggest, comes after Japanese exchange Coincheck sustained a $500m hack late last month. Binance’s woes sparked a mix of criticism, concern and sympathy from users on Twitter. “ . . . we have not been hacked. Just working with large data takes time,” Mr Zhao said to a user on Twitter who asked for confirmation that the exchange was not the subject of a cyber attack.

Binance Refutes Accusations Of Hack With The Power Of Blockchain | Cointelegraph

Binance, one of the largest crypto exchanges by trading volume according to CoinMarketCap, has had to continuously refute accusations of a hack since their exchange has unexpectedly gone offline due to server issues. Some on Twitter have repeatedly accused Binance of covering up a hack, most notably crypto persona John McAfee, who tweeted that while he wasn’t “trying to spread FUD,” he’d been receiving multiple reports alleging that Binance was really hacked.

Winklevoss Twins: Bitcoin Has Potential To Grow At Least 30-fold In 10 To 20 Years | Cointelegraph

Bitcoin has “potential appreciation” of thirty to forty times its current value, Cameron Winklevoss claimed in an interview with CNBC on Wednesday, Feb. 7. At press time, the market capitalization of Bitcoin was just below $140 bln. That would put the Winklevoss’ estimation of Bitcoin’s future market cap at over $5 trln. This number comes from a comparison to the $7 trln global gold market, which the brothers claim Bitcoin will disrupt.

Venezuela’s Cryptocurrency Petro Finds Foreign Investors, ICO To Take Place In March | Cointelegraph

The petro, an oil-backed state cryptocurrency set to be released in both a pre-sale and an Initial Coin Offering (ICO), was first announced by Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in December 2017. The petro’s white paper released Jan. 30 explains that the idea for the petro came from Hugo Chavez, who had envisioned a “strong currency backed by raw materials.”

ECB Board Member: Crypto Is ‘Contagion And Contamination’ Infecting The Global Financial System | Cointelegraph

Yves Mersch, Executive Board member of the European Central Bank (ECB), referred to cryptocurrencies as a risk of “contagion and contamination of the existing financial system” during an interview with 4 Technology on Feb. 8. Mersch warned of the potential for crypto markets to begin more strongly influencing traditional markets as the two have become more interconnected.

Cryptocurrencies Are Like Ponzi Schemes, World Bank Chief Says – Bloomberg

“In terms of using Bitcoin or some of the cryptocurrencies, we are also looking at it, but I’m told the vast majority of cryptocurrencies are basically Ponzi schemes,” World Bank Group President Jim Yong Kim said Wednesday at an event in Washington. “It’s still not really clear how it’s going to work.”

Cryptocurrencies Come to Campus – The New York Times

While the price of Bitcoin has dropped since Christmas, the virtual currency boom has shown no signs of cooling off in the more august precincts of America’s elite universities. Several top schools have added or are rushing to add classes about Bitcoin and the record-keeping technology that it introduced, known as the blockchain.

Criminals May Ditch Bitcoin for Litecoin, Dash, Study Says – Bloomberg

It may seem like everyone from Grandma to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has piled into Bitcoin in the past year, but there’s at least one group that’s looking for a way out: Criminals. Transacting with Bitcoin has become more expensive and less efficient as an influx of users has put strain on the network, leading to higher fees. As a result, some cryptocurrency enthusiasts — including criminals, who were among Bitcoin’s earliest adopters — have resorted to other digital coins.

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FOREX, CARRY TRADES, EXCHANGE RATES

New Era of Currency Volatility Leaves Bearish Dollar Bets Intact – Bloomberg

The latest turbulence in China’s yuan only adds to the complexity of a bruising stretch for global currency markets. Yet for some money managers and strategists, the path forward couldn’t be more simple: a weaker dollar. For these observers, the dollar’s rebound amid the biggest burst of foreign-exchange volatility since 2015 is bound to be short-lived.

Italy’s Northern League chief attacks euro, says preparing exit

“It’s clear to everyone that the euro is a mistake for our economy,” Matteo Salvini told reporters on the sidelines of a rally in Florence ahead of the March 4 parliamentary election. The eurosceptic League is a key member of the center-right coalition which polls suggest will win most seats at the election, but probably fall short of a working majority.

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TRADE, PROTECTIONISM, REGULATION, OVERSIGHT

Mexico Loads Up on U.S. Farm Products – Bloomberg

Even amid U.S.-initiated talks to revamp the North American Free Trade Agreement, Mexico bought a record amount of wheat, corn, soybeans, pork, dairy products and fresh vegetables from its northern neighbor in 2017. Overall, Mexico imported 8 percent more than in 2016, and it was the largest market for U.S. corn and wheat. The seventh round of Nafta talks are scheduled to begin Feb. 26. Should the negotiations fail, the Latin American nation has said it will seek food shipments from other suppliers.

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RUSSIA PROBE

George W. Bush: ‘Clear evidence Russians meddled’ in election – MSN

Former President George W. Bush appeared to take aim at President Trump on Thursday when he said at an economic summit in the Middle East that there was “pretty clear evidence that the Russians meddled” in the 2016 U.S. president election.

White House Favors Releasing Democratic Memo – WSJ

The White House is inclined to approve the release of a classified Democratic memo that rebuts Republican allegations of abuse by the FBI in its application to monitor a former Trump campaign aide, according to a person familiar with the matter.

Warner Wants Russia Probe to Delve Deeper With Tech Companies – Bloomberg

Senator Mark Warner said he’s not finished pressing the technology companies whose networks were exploited by Russia during the 2016 presidential campaign and beyond.

FBI surveillance of Carter Page might have picked up Bannon – POLITICO

The former Trump campaign adviser says he spoke to Trump aide Steve Bannon about Russia in January 2017, at a time when the FBI had a controversial warrant to monitor Page’s communications.

MPs attack US technology companies over fake news – FT

British MPs on Thursday attacked Facebook, Google and Twitter in Washington over what the parliamentarians regard as failures by the tech giants to fully investigate Russian interference in the Brexit referendum and 2017 election.

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NORTH / SOUTH KOREA, IRAN, NUCLEAR WEAPONS

The United States and South Korea now openly disagree on North Korea – The Washington Post

The behind-the-scenes break between Washington and Seoul over North Korea has now spilled into public view. One day ahead of the Winter Olympics Opening Ceremonies, the two governments are sending out contradictory messages about whether the Games are the beginning or the end of engagement with Pyongyang.

The Corporate Giant Lurking Behind the Winter Olympics – WSJ

Never before have an Olympics, a host country and a major company been so closely intertwined. South Korea got the Olympics it wanted, and Samsung stands to reap dividends from its heavy involvement in the Games.

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RATES, LIQUIDITY, SYSTEMIC RISK, BALANCE SHEETS

Bond Traders Have Gone From Hoping for Volatility to Worrying About It – Bloomberg

“The market has been kind of having a panic attack — we really haven’t heard from Powell and it would help if he made some soothing comments,” said Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research. “I don’t think he wants to establish right away that he wants a ‘Powell put’ the way we had a ‘Greenspan put’ and a ‘Bernanke put.’”

Fund crashes after wrong-way volatility trade – CNBC

The e-mail arrived in clients’ inboxes shortly after the market opened on Tuesday: “LJM strategies have suffered significant losses.” LJM Partners, a Chicago-based hedge fund with about half a billion dollars in assets, pinpointed the damage on spiking volatility, a trade that has claimed more than one scalp in the last few trading days. Their mutual fund, known as the LJM Preservation and Growth Fund, collapsed by 82 percent over the last week and was closed to new capital on Wednesday.

Rising Yields Are Rocking Stocks—but What About Issuers? – MoneyBeat – WSJ

Those higher yields are likely to be fairly costly for the U.S. Nine years of bond yields near record lows mean the U.S. government is paying virtually the same in interest costs on $20.5 trillion of debt as it paid in 2008 on about $10.6 trillion. Should bond yields continue to rise, so will the cost of funding that debt. This is of particular importance to the U.S., which is increasing the amount it borrows at its bond auctions this year as it funds a $1.5 trillion tax cut.

Investors resume their bets against market volatility – FT

More than $200m has flowed into an exchange-traded fund that narrowly survived the week’s upheaval. The ProShares Short VIX Short-Term Futures ETF, known as SVXY, allows investors to bet on a decline in the Vix volatility index, Wall Street’s “fear index”. It lost 90 per cent of its value on Monday, but enjoyed renewed inflows of $71.7m on Tuesday and another $135.6m on Wednesday, according to Bloomberg data.

Trading Firm Virtu Financial Rides High as Market Volatility Returns – MoneyBeat – WSJ

Market turbulence is good for firms like Virtu, whose primary business is market-making, the strategy of continuously quoting prices for stocks and collecting a small profit from the difference between the buying and selling price. Such spreads tend to widen when markets are volatile, resulting in bigger profits for market makers.

Has the Stock Market Hit Its ‘Psychological Peak’? – Bloomberg

To a greater extent than 24 previous pullbacks since 2009, he says, this one arrived to distinct signs of froth. Bitcoin’s 20-fold run-up. Individuals streaming into the market. Equity funds getting record cash. In contrast with euphoria years like 2017, bond yields are rising with increasing momentum, something that has historically spelled trouble, according to the chief investment officer of Leuthold Group.

Trump’s Soaring Budget Deficit Risks Intensifying Market Frenzy – Bloomberg

The ballooning federal budget deficit under President Donald Trump will force the U.S. to borrow more than $1 trillion this year and risks worsening the frenzy behind the global sell-off in stock markets. The budget deal Senate leaders reached late Wednesday would add nearly $300 billion in government spending over two years and push the deficit higher. Even beforehand, Bank of America Corp. senior U.S. economist Joseph Song warned in a report that the federal deficit was on track to exceed 5 percent of gross domestic product by 2019, by far the largest for the economy while at full employment since World War II.

There’s a Time Bomb Bigger Than the VIX in the Market – Bloomberg

Exchange-traded loan funds bear a lot of similarity to the volatility funds that average investors have flocked to for safety, except that they are much bigger. Volatility-linked ETFs grew to include about $8 billion in investments. The PowerShares Senior Loan ETF has nearly that much in it alone. Last month, LCD, a unit within S&P Global Market Intelligence, said that assets under management in loan funds had grown to more than $156 billion, up from around $110 billion two years ago.

Why Banks Will Cut Stock Market Fuel Supply – WSJ

Borrowing is very high in current markets, although by one measure it isn’t as aggressive as it has been. Banks however have more reason to worry than in recent times: many of them were hit with a sudden and very painful loss in this business late last year. That means they could limit new margin lending or start cutting back on what they already have given to clients. That would remove one leg of support that has helped buoy stock markets.

18G09 - NYSE MARGIN

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MACRO OP-EDS, INSIGHT, EVENTS AND TRENDS

The corporate debt problem refuses to recede – FT

The Bank for International Settlements calculates that global debt to gross domestic product is now 40 per cent higher — yes, higher — today than it was a decade ago. That is partly due to rising government borrowing in the west. Chinese debt has also exploded. But leverage has crept, almost unnoticed, into the corporate world. This highlights a second point: financial engineering has proliferated in the low-rate era.

Republicans are completely reversing themselves on the deficit – The Washington Post

The debt binge caps off a major reversal for the Republican Party, which has been swept up by President Trump’s demands for more spending and tax cuts at a time when the public seems to care less about debt than it has in years.

Republicans Learn to Love Deficit Spending They Once Loathed – The New York Times

The long-term implications of all this borrowing put the United States on track to ultimately owe more to its creditors than the economy produces over the course of a year. The nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget projects that the United States will run $2 trillion annual budget deficits by 2027 and have a debt-to-gross domestic product ratio of 105 percent — a level not seen since the end of World War II.

The coming conflict between millennials and boomers – Axios

In the next decade or so, automation and demographics will become a new dimension to the economic and social pressures already roiling the U.S. and societies around the world, according to the study released today by Bain. This new conflict will pit millennial workers displaced by machines against boomers living on Social Security and Medicare. “Who votes, who wins, and who goes to the polls become a highly politicized issue potentially,” says Karen Harris, managing director of Bain’s Macro Trends Group.

We All Have a Stake in the Stock Market, Right? Guess Again – The New York Times

Wall Street’s up and downs have little impact on the income or wealth of most Americans, despite the bromides of politicians on both sides of the aisle. A whopping 84 percent of all stocks owned by Americans belong to the wealthiest 10 percent of households. And that includes everyone’s stakes in pension plans, 401(k)’s and individual retirement accounts, as well as trust funds, mutual funds and college savings programs like 529 plans.

Trade deficit reality starts to bite for TrumP – FT

On Tuesday it was revealed that the US trade deficit widened by 12.1 per cent, to the highest level since the global financial crisis hit. As it happens, Mr Trump’s actions are probably making it bigger, not reducing it. By threatening emergency restrictions on steel imports, the administration only encouraged American manufacturers and construction companies to buy more product from abroad quickly, before the restrictions were imposed. And the big tax cuts agreed recently by Congress, by stoking demand, will suck in more imports.

The Obscure History—and Future—of the Plastic Bag – Bloomberg

The plastic bag’s ascent to ubiquity is in stark contrast to its humble beginnings. Made from a material that was invented by accident in the 1930s, it wasn’t until 1962 that the first patent of what we now think of as a plastic bag emerged. Its rise from there was meteoric, with the patent approved for a company called Celloplast in 1965, before being brought into the mass market by chemical businesses like Mobil.

Brexit has replaced the UK’s stiff upper lip with quivering rage – FT

So what is going on? The answer is that the country is in the middle of a civil war. The EU referendum did not resolve this war: the two sides are too evenly matched and contemptuous of each other for that. The war is over the sort of country this is, maybe even over whether the UK is to be a country at all. True, this is a peaceful civil war. That is the abiding virtue of the democratic political process. But it is still a schism between irreconcilable opponents.

Canada’s housing market flirts with disaster – FT

Canada is in the grip of a housing crisis more severe, by some measures,than anywhere else in the world. Household debt now amounts to more than 100 per cent of the country’s gross domestic product, according to the Basel-based Bank for International Settlements, one of the highest of any developed nation. House prices have raced ahead of wages for years, boosted by loose lending, low interest rates and lax controls on foreign money.

18G09 - CANADIAN DEBT

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CENTRAL BANKS & MONETARY POLICY

Fed’s Dudley Sticks to His Outlook, Calls the Market Moves ‘Small Potatoes’ – Bloomberg

U.S. stocks have fallen in recent days in part because of the rising prospect that global central banks will be tightening monetary policy, Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley said. “So far, I’d say this is small potatoes,” Dudley said of recent market moves. “The little decline that we’ve had in the equity market today has virtually no implications for the economic outlook.”

BoE watchers shift direction on hawkish Inflation Report – FT

Well, that escalated quickly. The Bank of England has struck a surprisingly hawkish note in its latest Inflation Report, delivering a clear warning that interest rates may need to rise substantially to counter the effect of a buoyant global economy on UK prices. (Hello sterling.)

Bank of England Signals Faster Rate Rises, Boosting Sterling – WSJ

The Bank of England said it expects to raise interest rates in the U.K. at a swifter pace than it anticipated last year, responding to stronger growth in the global economy.

Mexico’s Central Bank Lifts Rates to Nine-Year High – WSJ

The Bank of Mexico lifted interest rates by a quarter percentage point to a nine-year high of 7.5%, amid stubbornly high inflation and investor expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve may raise rates faster than previously thought.

Rand Paul Says He Will Oppose Marvin Goodfriend’s Fed Nomination – WSJ

Sen. Rand Paul said he would vote against the nomination of Marvin Goodfriend for a spot on the Federal Reserve’s board of governors, raising the prospect the Carnegie Mellon University economist might not have enough support to win confirmation.

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USA ECONOMY DATA, CITIES AND STATES

U.S. jobless claims drop to near 45-year low – Reuters

The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, dropping to its lowest level in nearly 45 years as the labor market tightened further, bolstering expectations of faster wage growth this year.

Farm Belt Braces for Falling Incomes, Trade Disputes – WSJ

Farm incomes are expected to hit their lowest point since 2006 and borrowing costs are rising, federal data shows, as a deepening slump in the agricultural economy enters its fifth year.

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POT BOOM, MARIJUANA LEGALIZATION, DRUG POLICY

A Girl Scout Sold 300 Boxes of Cookies Near a California Marijuana Shop – The New York Times

The girl spent more than six hours closing sales, her father said. While some have praised the plucky scout for figuring out where the demand would probably be, the Girl Scouts organization has been wrestling with how to handle marijuana-adjacent sales as more states have legalized the drug.

Seattle Moves to Dismiss Marijuana Misdemeanors – NPR

Seattle’s mayor and city attorney announced plans to ask the courts to vacate all misdemeanor marijuana possession convictions that were prosecuted before it was legalized in Washington state in 2012 — a move that could affect the records of hundreds of people.

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COLOR, EARNINGS, SENTIMENT, VALUATIONS

Without Steve Wynn, Casino Empire Risks Losing More Than a Name – The New York Times

Mr. Wynn’s shoes “will not be easy to fill,” Vitaly Umansky, an analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein in Hong Kong, wrote in a note on Wednesday. “While, theoretically, the old adage that everyone is replaceable may be generally true, the Wynn dynamic is much more complicated and uncertain. Steve Wynn is WYNN (the company).”

Twitter Notches Its First Profit, and Shares Leap – WSJ

Twitter reported its first profitable quarter as a publicly traded company, a welcome piece of news for a company that has long

sought to make a viable business out of the eyeballs following its feeds.

Twitter made a profit by cutting costs, not by growing its business – Recode

Twitter made $91 million in Q4, its first profitable quarter ever. Investors loved the flip, and Twitter stock is up almost 16 percent. But it didn’t get there by growing its business. It got there by cutting costs. A quick look at the company’s income statement shows us where: 1) Stock-based compensation, or stock awards given to employees as part of their salary; 2) research and development; and 3) sales and marketing. Twitter made notable cuts to all three categories in the past year.

Tax Changes, Wildfires Push AIG to $6.7 Billion Loss – WSJ

American International Group posted a higher fourth-quarter loss as the global insurance conglomerate was affected by the wildfires in California last year and took a $6.7 billion hit from recent U.S. tax law changes.

Nvidia’s upbeat forecast powered by data center, cryptocurrency demand- Reuters

Nvidia Corp’s upbeat current-quarter revenue forecast on Thursday underscored surging demand for its graphics chips used in data centers, gaming devices and cryptocurrency mining, sending its shares up as much as 12 percent in extended trading.

New York Times Shares Surge as Online Subscribers Keep Growing – Bloomberg

New York Times Co. shares surged to their highest level in more than a decade after the publisher gave a bullish forecast for online subscriptions, easing concern about a decline in print advertising.

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REAL ESTATE, HOUSING, REITS, COMMERCIAL

Manhattan Rents Drop Most in Six Years – Bloomberg

“Landlords have finally realized, ‘OK, we have to adjust these prices because the concessions aren’t doing as much,’” said Hal Gavzie, who oversees leasing for Douglas Elliman. “Customers are looking past the concessions being offered and just looking for the best deals they can find.”

Sellers accept big discounts on top-end London property – FT

High-end homes in central London are selling at the biggest discounts in more than a decade as sellers continue to set ambitious prices even as the market declines. In 2017 homes in the most exclusive postcodes were sold at an average discount of 10 per cent or more on their initial asking price, according to figures from LonRes, a research company.

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ENERGY CRUDE OIL, OIL SANDS, SHALE

Oil World Turns Upside Down as U.S. Sells Oil in Middle East – Bloomberg

In a trade that illustrates how the rise of the American shale industry is upending energy markets across the globe, the U.A.E. bought oil directly from the U.S. in December, according to data from the federal government. A tanker sailed from Houston and arrived in the Persian Gulf last month. The cargo of American condensate, a type of very light crude oil, was preferred to regional grades because its superior quality made more suitable for the U.A.E’s processing plants, a person with knowledge of the matter said, asking not to be identified discussing a commercially sensitive matter.

U.S. oil falls for sixth day as supply fears mount – Reuters

Oil prices fell for a sixth day on Friday after Iran announced plans to boost production and U.S. crude output hit record highs, adding to concerns about a sharp rise in global supplies.

India’s Oil Hunger to Grow Despite its Electric Car Ambitions – Bloomberg

Even though India aspires to sell only electric vehicles by 2030, it still sees gasoline and diesel consumption doubling over that period. The two ideas may not be contradictory. Electric vehicles will take time to become affordable enough for price-sensitive Indian masses, according to the country’s energy forecaster. During that time, gasoline and diesel vehicles will remain the mainstay as cars and scooters sold in the next few years will stay roadworthy for at least a decade after.

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BREXIT, SCOXIT, LONDON, UK ECONOMY

Britain to world: please pretend we are not leaving EU – FT

Britain has a message for the rest of the world after Brexit next year: please pretend we are still in the EU. A “technical note” prepared by the British government calls on non-EU nations to treat the UK during its post-Brexit transition period after March 2019 as if it was still covered by more than 700 treaties Brussels has struck with third countries on everything from fishing rights to data sharing. “To coin a phrase, they are going to tell the world that Brexit does not mean Brexit,” said one EU official.

George Soros is reportedly backing a campaign to stop Brexit

Billionaire investor George Soros has given hundreds of thousands of pounds to a pro-European Union campaign aimed at stopping the U.K. leaving the political and economic bloc, according to media reports.

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DACA, TRAVEL BAN, IMMIGRATION, WALL

‘Pillar of the community’ deported from US to a land he barely knows – CNN

Adi lived in America for nearly 40 years. His wife and daughters are all US citizens. He owns several businesses in his adopted hometown of Youngstown, Ohio. A week ago, he was deported.

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GEOPOLITICS, CRIME, TERRORISM

U.S. Strikes Pro-Assad Forces in Syria – WSJ

The U.S. military launched an airstrike and aimed artillery fire against forces fighting for the Syrian regime Wednesday, in response to what it called an “unprovoked attack” on U.S. and coalition personnel and the local forces they back.

Far From Winding Down, Syria’s War Escalates on Multiple Fronts – The New York Times

The conflict has broken into several small wars, and the carnage is reaching a new peak, upending any assumptions it might be nearing an end.

Japanese quake rescue team arrives after Taipei rejects Beijing’s offer | South China Morning Post

A day after Taiwan rejected Beijing’s offer to send help following a powerful earthquake that killed at least 10 people and injured 272 others, a seven-member Japanese team arrived in Hualien on Thursday to assist with rescue efforts.

Rohingya Refugees Driven From Myanmar Meet Hostility in Bangladesh – WSJ

More than 700,000 Rohingya refugees from Myanmar have packed into camps in Bangladesh since last year, dwarfing the local population and triggering an increasingly angry response from some locals who say the influx is causing food shortages, pushing up prices and undercutting wages.

Massacre in Myanmar: One grave for 10 Rohingya men – Reuters

On Sept. 2, Buddhist villagers and Myanmar troops killed 10 Rohingya men in Myanmar’s restive Rakhine state. Reuters uncovered the massacre and has pieced together how it unfolded. During the reporting of this article, two Reuters journalists were arrested by Myanmar police.

U.S. Secretly Offered Iran a Channel for Talks on Prisoners – WSJ

The Trump administration secretly reached out to Iran in December to propose creating a direct channel to negotiate the release of prisoners held by each side, marking the first U.S. diplomatic overture to Iran on the issue under the Republican president.

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PRIVACY, HACKING, CYBERWAR, SURVEILLANCE STATE

Key iPhone Source Code Gets Posted Online in ‘Biggest Leak in History’ – Motherboard

“This is the biggest leak in history,” Jonathan Levin, the author of a series of books on iOS and Mac OSX internals, told me in an online chat, referring to Apple’s history. “It’s a huge deal.”

TOP

PROPAGANDA, CORRUPTION, AUTHORITARIANISM

Saudi journalist jailed for accusing royal court over corruption – FT

A Saudi Arabia court has jailed a prominent newspaper columnist after he criticised the country’s royal court, in the latest sign of the diminishing margin for free speech despite the kingdom’s push for more social liberalisation. Saleh al-Shehi, who writes for al-Watan, the daily paper, was sentenced to five years in prison followed by a five-year travel ban for insulting the royal court and its employees, state news television reported on Thursday.

TOP

SCANDALS, LAWSUITS, FINES, REGULATORY

Netanyahu Lashes Out as Israeli Police Wrap Up Graft Inquiries – The New York Times

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel has lashed out at the country’s police chief, whom he accused of airing “delusional and mendacious” insinuations against him, just days before the police are expected to publish recommendations regarding potential charges against Mr. Netanyahu in two corruption investigations, possibly including bribery.

TOP

MEDIA, CABLE, SPORTS, ENTERTAINMENT

China’s Love of Live-Streaming Makes Ex-Journalist a Billionaire – Bloomberg

China has become the largest market for live streaming, with 2018 revenue expected to reach $4.4 billion, according to a December report from Deloitte. And the boom has been a boon for YY shares, which have almost tripled in the past 12 months and given founder Xueling Li a net worth of $1.3 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.

TOP

AUTOS, ELECTRIC, SELF-DRIVING

Musk reaches for the stars but investors grow impatient – FT

He may have conquered space, but time is one commodity that even Mr Musk cannot control. The Tesla boss told Wall Street this week that there is no thought at the moment of him handing over the CEO title — a possibility envisaged in his latest long-range remuneration plan. But if the delays stretch much longer, even Tesla shareholders may be content for him to join the one-way car ride to the asteroid belt.

Tesla confident of overcoming Model 3 battery woes – FT

Mr Musk compared the current top speed of the industry’s automobile production lines to “grandma with a walker”, and said the lines should run at “30 . . . 40 kilometres per hour”. He did not explain how such huge leaps could be achieved, or whether Tesla could ever reach those levels.

TOP

HEALTH, PRODUCTIVITY AND WELLNESS

Diet Rich In Greens Linked To Less Age-Related Memory Loss : Shots – Health News : NPR

A study recently published in Neurology finds that healthy seniors who had daily helpings of leafy green vegetables — such as spinach, kale and collard greens — had a slower rate of cognitive decline, compared to those who tended to eat little or no greens.

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MISCELLANEOUS

John Perry Barlow, Internet Pioneer, 1947-2018 | Electronic Frontier Foundation

Barlow was sometimes held up as a straw man for a kind of naive techno-utopianism that believed that the Internet could solve all of humanity’s problems without causing any more. As someone who spent the past 27 years working with him at EFF, I can say that nothing could be further from the truth. Barlow knew that new technology could create and empower evil as much as it could create and empower good. He made a conscious decision to focus on the latter: “I knew it’s also true that a good way to invent the future is to predict it. So I predicted Utopia, hoping to give Liberty a running start before the laws of Moore and Metcalfe delivered up what Ed Snowden now correctly calls ‘turn-key totalitarianism.’”

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