Macro Links Jan 30th – Secret Memo

Macro Links Jan 30th – Secret Memo

You are viewing the Macro Links delayed archive. The real time Macro Links, posted each trading day, are available via the Mercenary Research Suite. To see how it works, click here.

MACRO LINKS TABLE OF CONTENTS (Click or Scroll Down)

TOP

SECRET MEMO

House Republicans Vote to Release Secret Memo on Russia Probe – The New York Times

Republicans on the House Intelligence Committee, disregarding Justice Department warnings that their actions would be “extraordinarily reckless,” voted Monday evening to release a contentious secret memorandum said to accuse the department and the F.B.I. of misusing their authority to obtain a secret surveillance order on a former Trump campaign associate.

FBI Scrambling to Get More Info on Explosive Nunes Memo Ahead of Vote to Release It – Daily Beast

The vote followed negotiations by both the FBI and the committee to give greater access for the bureau, to a memo that the FBI has not seen and which the Justice Department warned might harm counterintelligence investigations should it be released without vetting.

Secret Memo Hints at a New Republican Target: Rod Rosenstein – The New York Times

The renewal shows that the Justice Department under President Trump saw reason to believe that the associate, Carter Page, was acting as a Russian agent. But the reference to Mr. Rosenstein’s actions in the memo — a much-disputed document that paints the investigation into Russian election meddling as tainted from the start — indicates that Republicans may be moving to seize on his role as they seek to undermine the inquiry.

FBI’s McCabe Steps Down Amid Trump Criticism, Source Says – Bloomberg

FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe, who has received blistering criticism from President Donald Trump, has stepped down and will be on leave until he retires sometime in the spring, a person familiar with the matter said Monday. Trump and some Republican lawmakers have increasingly argued there’s evidence that past officials at the Federal Bureau of Investigation, including McCabe, were biased toward Democrat Hillary Clinton and against Trump in the run-up to the presidential election.

Andrew McCabe Steps Down as F.B.I. Deputy Director Under Pressure – The New York Times

Though Mr. McCabe’s retirement had been widely expected soon, his departure was nevertheless sudden. As recently as last week, Mr. McCabe had told people he hoped to stay until he was eligible to retire in mid-March. Instead, Mr. McCabe made his intentions known to colleagues on Monday, an American official said, and will immediately go on leave.

Trump told McCabe to ask his wife how it felt to be a loser: report | TheHill

President Trump reportedly told then-acting FBI Director Andrew McCabe that he should ask his wife, who had lost a bid for political office in Virginia, how it felt to be a loser, NBC News reported Monday.

TOP

WYNN ALLEGATIONS FALLOUT

Steve Wynn Fallout Ripples as Republicans Seek Distance – WSJ

Republicans worked to distance themselves from Steve Wynn in the wake of a Wall Street Journal report of former employees describing a decadeslong pattern of sexual misconduct by the casino mogul and GOP financial bigwig.

Wynn Resorts Is the Biggest Test for Investors’ Tolerance – WSJ

Wynn Resorts has lost $3 billion in market value since its founder and chief executive was accused by former employees of behavior that amounts to a decadeslong pattern of sexual misconduct. The situation is unique because of Steve Wynn’s role and his outsize importance to the company.

How China responds to Steve Wynn allegations – Business Insider

The Chinese government knows exactly what Wynn has to lose in Macau, and it’s going to the jugular. If you think Macau’s #MeToo moment is happening because Chinese President Xi Jinping is a feminist, then I have an asset to sell you on a Chinese online investment platform that will definitely yield 50%, I promise.

Wynn Tumbles After Macau Government Adds to Harassment Scrutiny – Bloomberg

Sexual harassment allegations swirling around casino magnate Steve Wynn in the U.S. are causing ripples and headaches for Wynn Resorts Ltd. on the other side of the world in Macau.

TOP

BITCOIN, CRYPTOCURRENCY, INITIAL COIN OFFERINGS

One Million People Are Waiting in Line to Join Robinhood’s Crypto Trading – Bloomberg

Eager to trade Bitcoin for free on Robinhood? Take a number and get in line…a very long line. More than one million people have signed up for “early access” to the brokerage app’s cryptocurrency section in the four days since it said it would offer no-cost trading in digital coins. It could be a long time before they’re able to trade.

Governments Worry That Cryptocurrencies Could Be the ‘Next Swiss Bank Account’ – Bloomberg

Authorities around the world worry that cryptocurrencies could become tax havens. Too late. It’s already happening. Take David Drake, whose New York-based family office has more than $10 million in cryptocurrency and blockchain investments. He’s using digital money like an offshore bank account — a place to legally park overseas business profits and reduce U.S. taxes.

Crypto Hedge Fund Polychain Says It Won’t Proceed With IPO – Bloomberg

Polychain Capital, the crypto hedge fund backed by venture firms Sequoia Capital and Andreessen Horowitz, has decided not to go public in Canada after holdings talks with bankers about an initial public offering.

China’s First Bitcoin Exchange Acquired by Hong Kong Investors – Bloomberg

China’s first Bitcoin exchange said it has been acquired by an unnamed Hong Kong-based blockchain investment fund after a regulatory crackdown by Chinese officials. BTCC, which was known as BTC China when it was founded in 2011 and run by American Bobby Lee, was purchased for undisclosed terms.

Growing Number of South Korean Crypto Exchanges Participate in Self-Regulation – Bitcoin News

The number of cryptocurrency exchanges participating in self-regulation has nearly doubled in South Korea. The crypto self-regulation efforts are led by the Korean Blockchain Association which has recently launched with 66 members. The association also plans to develop standard price indices for the main cryptocurrencies.

Crypto Firm Ordered to Stop Broker Business by German Watchdog – Bloomberg

German supervisors ordered a Berlin-based firm to immediately stop offering the exchange of clients’ Bitcoins into euros, saying it had no permission to offer such brokerage services. Crypto.exchange GmbH was advertising online that it could sell bitcoins on exchanges and transfer the proceeds within 30 minutes, according to Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority.

Crypto-Mining Malware Epidemic: 55% of Businesses Affected Worldwide, Including YouTube | Cointelegraph

Another case of “cryptojacking” was detected on YouTube and resolved by Google over the course of this week, Ars Technica reported Friday, Jan. 26. According to the report, anonymous hackers have managed to run ads on YouTube that consumed the visitors’ CPU power and electricity in order to mine cryptocurrencies for the attackers.

Deutsche Bank: ‘Required Governance’ For Crypto ‘Could’ Arrive By 2023 | Cointelegraph

Deutsche Bank’s Chief Investment Office head Markus Mueller has suggested that “governance” that will legitimize crypto investments could exist in “five to ten years.” Originally speaking in an interview with Bloomberg on Monday, Jan. 29, Mueller cautioned against current investment in cryptocurrency as only for those “who invest speculatively” while appealing for businesses in the sphere to work together with regulators.

Kansas Latest US State to Warn on Crypto Investment Risk – CoinDesk

On Jan. 25, the Office of Securities Commissioner – a division of the Kansas Insurance Department – issued a statement to the public that investment in cryptocurrencies, including initial coin offerings (ICOs) and futures tied to digital currencies, are not insured by the government. As such, the commissioner warns investors to be cautious regarding investment pitfalls.

How Chinese Bitcoin Buyers Are Getting Around Government Ban | Cointelegraph

To prevent Chinese investors from buying digital currencies, the Chinese government and the People’s Bank of China (PBoC), have asked local banks to disclose any suspicious transactions linked to Hong Kong-based markets. However, even this action will not be able to prevent Chinese investors from accessing Hong Kong-based markets, due to apps such as Alipay and WeChat Pay.

Russia’s Longest-Serving Finance Minister Backs Crypto “Self-Regulation” – Bitcoin News

Former Russian Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin favors “self-regulation” in the cryptocurrency sector. He believes it will be more effective, at this early stage, than any imposed regulations. Others have expressed similar views about the currently proposed regime.

How to Launder $500 Million in Digital Currency – Bloomberg

Early Friday morning in Tokyo, hackers broke into a cryptocurrency exchange called Coincheck Inc. and made off with nearly $500 million in digital tokens. It’s one of the biggest heists in history, with the exchange losing more than 500 million of the somewhat obscure NEM coins. The hack has raised questions about security of cryptocurrencies around the world.

Japan’s Cryptocurrency Whiz Kid Faces $530 Million Reckoning – WSJ

People who have worked for Mr. Wada, now 27 years old, said the hacking reflected Coincheck’s rush to expand its business without always adopting the latest security. Mr. Wada and a Coincheck spokeswoman didn’t respond to repeated messages seeking comment. Among other things, Coincheck kept the customers’ NEM in “hot wallets,” meaning the accounts were connected to the internet and more easily accessed by hackers.

Ripple Vets Raising Money for Crypto Hedge Fund – CoinDesk

Two former employees of distributed ledger startup Ripple are raising money for a cryptocurrency hedge fund, public records show. Twin filings to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) dated Jan. 25 and 26 show that co-founders Tim Lewkow and Eli Lang are seeking funds to back Fractal Investments, which invests in crypto-assets, per its official website.

The 2018 Satoshi’s Vision Conference Heads to Japan – Bitcoin News

After the successful ‘Satoshi’s Vision Conference’ held in San Francisco in 2016, and last year’s ‘The Future of Bitcoin’ event in Arnhem, the Bitcoin Unlimited team is hosting another conference this year in Tokyo, Japan. Satoshi’s Vision Conference Tokyo will be held on March 23-25 and aims to bring cryptocurrency luminaries, the brightest developers, business executives, and proponents of this emerging technology together for three days of discussions and networking.

Japan’s Central Bank Sees No Need to Mint a Digital Currency – Bloomberg

“We aren’t at the stage of considering issuing a digital currency because there is no demand,” Yuko Kawai, the head of the BOJ division, said in an interview last week. “To begin with, do we really need a digital currency in the nation where cashless living isn’t making much progress?”

Japanese Electronics Retail Giant Launches Bitcoin Payments – CoinDesk

Major Japanese consumer electronics retailer Yamada Denki has partnered with cryptocurrency exchange bitFlyer to add a bitcoin payments service in two of its stores. Launched this weekend, according to a press release, one of the stores to receive the new service is based in Shinjuku, an area of Tokyo that attracts large numbers of foreign visitors.

Us Government Scientists: “Bitcoin Is a Fork and Bitcoin Cash Is the Original” – Bitcoin News

Answering demands from the private and public sectors, US government scientists have created a guide to the technology behind bitcoin and its applications for a variety of uses. Among various issues, the 59-page report explains that, “technically, Bitcoin is a fork and Bitcoin Cash is the original blockchain.”

World’s Largest Investment Company: ‘Interesting’ Bitcoin Is Under ‘Close Review’ | Cointelegraph

Isabelle Mateos Y Lago, chief multi-asset strategist at BlackRock, an investment management corporation with $5.7 trln in assets under management, has said that the company is keeping cryptocurrency under “close review” as an “interesting development.”

TOP

BLOCKCHAIN, FINTECH DIGITAL PAYMENTS

Can Bitcoin Claw its Way Back to Being a Payment System? | Cointelegraph

There are plans in the pipeworks to try and bring Bitcoin back to its original purpose, with the Lightning Network being tested in certain instances. The belief being that Lightening network can cut the exorbitant transaction fees, and slice the waiting times to a manageable level.

ING buys majority stake in payment processor Payvision – FT

ING said on Monday it has agreed to buy a majority stake in payment group Payvision as the Dutch lender looks to boost its foothold in the payment processing market. The lender’s business clients will be able to accept payments through “any channel” including online stores and through retail terminals by using the Payvision platform. Payvision, founded in 2002, allows payments through 150 currencies, 80 payment methods and has offices in the US, Europe and Asia.

TOP

FOREX, CARRY TRADES, EXCHANGE RATES

Why Is the Dollar Weak? Because the Rest of the World Is Strong – WSJ

The explanation for the weak dollar is both ludicrously simple and deeply puzzling. The simple explanation is that the economies in the rest of the world are finally growing again, so their currencies are strengthening. The U.S. economy isn’t improving as fast—because it was stronger to start with—so the dollar’s falling. The puzzle is that other markets, particularly bonds, aren’t telling the same story.

Investor Thirst for Foreign Stocks May Be Speeding Dollar’s Decline – WSJ

Global investors are shifting more of their money overseas, betting that even as the U.S. stock market reaches new highs a resurgent global economy creates greater opportunities elsewhere. That rising tide of capital chasing foreign stocks may even be helping drive the dollar to more-than-three-year lows, some analysts say.

Dollar’s Drop Fuels a Fire That’s Already Raging – WSJ

A further rapid fall in the dollar may yet cause headaches for central bankers who have created the conditions in which markets are partying. In the U.S., financial conditions have been loosening even as the Federal Reserve lifts rates. At some point, that might cause a reappraisal of policy, potentially upsetting markets that have come to rely on the idea that U.S. rates will peak much lower than in the past. Meanwhile, a much weaker dollar could spur further risk-taking in markets where worries about valuations are already rife.

Dollar weakness driven by monetary policy after all – FT

Once the market has fully adjusted to stronger eurozone growth prospects, along with a more restrictive ECB, the fall in the dollar will lose one of its main driving forces. This could happen in the fairly near future.

TOP

TRADE, PROTECTIONISM, REGULATION, OVERSIGHT

Europe to Trump: If You Want a Trade War, You’ll Get One – Bloomberg

The European Union gave President Donald Trump a fresh warning about any U.S. curbs on imports from Europe by pledging rapid retaliation, highlighting the persistent risk of a trans-Atlantic trade war.

EU says it will ‘react swiftly and appropriately’ after Donald Trump trade war threat | The Independent

The European Commission has warned that it will react “swiftly and appropriately” to any threat of a trade war by the US, after Donald Trump appeared to threaten a trade war against the continent. Speaking after slapping new ‘America First’ tariffs on some imported goods, the US president said he had “a lot of problems” with the European Union’s trade policy and hinted he might take similar action against the bloc.

On Trade, World Wonders Whose Rules U.S. Plays By – WSJ

President Donald Trump’s message at Davos aimed to soothe anxieties of business and political elites, but it left the world unsettled: Whose rules does the U.S. intend to abide by? And why does it punish so many countries when only one, China, is systematically breaking the rules?

China’s Xi Looks to Ally to Fix U.S. Relations – WSJ

President Xi Jinping is turning to a trusted political ally who ran his potent anticorruption campaign to help manage the critical but fraught relationship with the U.S. as trade tensions escalate, according to officials familiar with the leadership’s thinking.

18F30 - CHINA TRADE SURPLUS

Nafta Talks Conclude in Montreal With Signs of Progress and Risk – The New York Times

Discussions to revamp the North American Free Trade Agreement moved from stalemate to actual negotiation during the sixth round of talks that concluded on Monday, but a deal was still far from guaranteed as Mexico, Canada and the United States continue to squabble over how to reshape the 24-year-old pact.

Washington says Nafta talks are moving too slowly – FT

Talks to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement are moving too slowly, Donald Trump’s trade tsar complained on Monday as he rejected a Canadian proposal to rethink the rules governing the auto trade on the continent. Robert Lighthizer, the US trade representative, also clashed with Chrystia Freeland, his Canadian counterpart, over trade data, pointing to Canadian figures showing the US had a trade deficit in goods with its northern neighbour rivalling the US imbalance with Mexico.

U.S. Companies Brace for Wider Scrutiny of Chinese Deals – WSJ

Lawmakers are moving to stanch the flow of U.S. technology to foreign investors, creating potential problems for a number of American companies that have bet big on partnering with China. The Senate and House, with the backing of the White House, are working on bipartisan legislation to broaden the authority of the Committee on Foreign Investment in the U.S., a multi-agency body that has oversight of deals that could lead to the transfer of sensitive technology to rival countries.

Trump’s anti-regulation push more slow crawl than big bang – FT

Donald Trump told a Davos audience last week that a signature achievement of his first year was a slash-and-burn offensive against Obama-era red tape. But he has eliminated fewer regulations than his administration’s rhetoric suggests.

TOP

HEALTHCARE, BUDGET, INFRASTRUCTURE, FISCAL POLICY

Scoop: Trump team considers nationalizing 5G network – Axios

Trump national security officials are considering an unprecedented federal takeover of a portion of the nation’s mobile network to guard against China, according to sensitive documents obtained by Axios.

FCC Chairman Opposes Government Takeover of 5G Wireless Build-Out – WSJ

Federal Communications Commission Chairman Ajit Pai said Monday he opposes a government takeover of the next-generation 5G wireless system, casting further doubt on an idea that has been floated by some Trump administration officials.

Trump’s Infrastructure Plan Hits Early Roadblock Over Funding – Bloomberg

Top Democrats are questioning President Donald Trump’s infrastructure plan even before it’s released, raising doubts about whether the administration’s approach can win bipartisan support.

TOP

TAXATION, WEALTH HAVENS, INEQUALITY

U.S. Defense Firms Want to Keep Tax Windfall – WSJ

U.S. defense executives urged lawmakers and federal officials to let them invest the windfall from new tax rules in weapons research rather than on lower prices for the Pentagon.

Tucked Into the Tax Bill, a Plan to Help Distressed America – The New York Times

The law creates “Opportunity Zones,” which will use tax incentives to draw long-term investment to parts of America that continue to struggle with high poverty and sluggish job and business growth. The provision is the first new substantial federal attempt to aid those communities in more than a decade. And it comes as a disproportionate share of economic growth has been concentrated in so-called superstar metropolitan areas like Los Angeles and New York.

Few U.S. adults report bonuses, raises from Republican tax law – Reuters

Two percent of U.S. adults said they had gotten a raise, bonus or other additional benefits due to the Republican tax law enacted a month ago by President Donald Trump, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Monday.

Republicans love their tax law. Voters aren’t so sure. – Politico

The Congressional Leadership Fund, a group with close ties to House GOP leadership, recently found that voters in battleground districts are more likely to think Republicans raised their taxes than cut them. And a recent Pew Research Center survey found that only around a third of adults thought the tax bill would help them and the country as a whole.

GE is a rare loser from US tax reform

GE’s tax department, employing hundreds of accountants and lawyers, has long been acknowledged as one of the most effective in US business, for years keeping the group’s tax charges well below the main corporate rate of 35 per cent. Other companies have sought to emulate its success. But the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, signed into law by President Donald Trump on December 22, is expected to wipe out much of the advantage that GE has enjoyed.

TOP

RUSSIA PROBE

On Flight to Davos, Trump Erupted Over DOJ Role in Russia Probe – Bloomberg

President Donald Trump’s frustrations with the Russia investigation boiled over on Air Force One last week when he learned that a top Justice Department official had warned against releasing a memo that could undercut the probe, according to four people with knowledge of the matter.

Mark Warner: ‘We’ve Had New Information That Raises More Questions’ – POLITICO Magazine

Congress late last year received “extraordinarily important new documents” in its investigation of President Donald Trump and his campaign’s possible collusion with the 2016 Russian election hacking, opening up significant new lines of inquiry in the Senate Intelligence Committee’s probe of the president, Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.) says in an exclusive new interview.

Obstruction chatter intensifies around Trump – Axios

Ken Starr, who prosecuted President Bill Clinton in the Monica Lewinsky case, said on ABC’s “This Week,” when asked about reports Trump sought to have Mueller fired, despite denials: “You’re now talking about something called lying to the American people, and I think that is something that Bob Mueller should look at.”

Trump Tower Russian Lawyer, Natalia Veselnitskaya, Exposed in Swiss Corruption Case

Natalia Veselnitskaya, who organized the notorious Trump Tower meeting, has been named in an explosive Swiss court case about bribery, corruption, and double-agents.

Russian Bots Retweeted Trump 500,000 Times at End of 2016 Campaign, Created Fake Facebook Events Seen by Thousands – Newsweek

The U.S. intelligence community has concluded that Russia launched an unprecedented series of cyber attacks and fake news floods to sow division and sway voters ahead of Trump’s surprise victory.

Russian Billionaires Are Scrambling to Stay Off a New US ‘Black List’ – Mother Jones

The law’s wording makes it unclear whether or not the list will be made public, and who might be included. What has become clear, though, is that Russia’s businessmen—some of the world’s wealthiest people—see this government-created list, though informal, as endangering their fortunes, reputations, and connections in the West and potentially exposing them to future additional sanctions.

TOP

NORTH / SOUTH KOREA, IRAN, NUCLEAR WEAPONS

North Korea has cancelled joint cultural performance with South Korea ahead of Winter Olympics | The Independent

North Korea has cancelled a joint cultural performance with South Korea, accusing southern media of encouraging “insulting” public sentiment towards the North, South Korea’s unification ministry said. Seoul said North Korea’s decision to cancel the joint performance was “very regrettable” and stressed Pyongyang should uphold all agreements made between North and South Korea.

North Korea, Under Sanctions Strain, Dials Back Military Exercises – WSJ

North Korea’s armed forces have scaled back their annual winter military exercises this year, U.S. officials said, a development they believe reflects pressure from international sanctions on the North’s economy and its military preparedness.

US steps up pressure on African countries to cut North Korea ties – FT

The US is stepping up pressure on African states to cut longstanding military and diplomatic ties with North Korea as part of its push to squeeze the funding of Kim Jong Un’s nuclear missile programme.

TOP

RATES, LIQUIDITY, SYSTEMIC RISK, BALANCE SHEETS

Government debt sell-off gains pace – FT

The price of government debt is falling in leading markets including the US and Germany as the recent sell-off in sovereign paper gathers steam. US Treasuries hit their cheapest level in almost four years on Monday morning, with the yield on 10-year debt hitting 2.71 per cent. Yields rise when prices fall.

18F30 - GERMAN 5-YRS TURN POSITIVE

Risk Assets in Danger Zone as Bull Feeding Time Is a Frenzy – Bloomberg

Goldman Sachs warns that “extreme” sentiment is propelling global shares to their best start to a year ever, while U.S. government bonds head for their worst on record. Investors are throwing caution to wind to wager more gains are nigh. Those piling into same-way bets are causing some to warn that markets are dangerously close to overextended.

18F30 - SPX FRENZY

US 10-year Treasury climbs past 2.7% for first time since 2014 – FT

The Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting on Wednesday, but markets will be looking for hints pointing toward a March tightening. Markets are putting the chance of a March rate rise at 94.5 per cent, according to pricing tracked by Bloomberg.

It’s Getting Hard for S&P 500 to Elude Bond Market Violence – Bloomberg

A subplot that has gone largely unnoticed in this year’s relentless stock rally is playing out in public Monday. It’s the steady hammering in companies with the highest dividends, a trend that before today had done little to slow the advance in the S&P 500 and Dow average. That resistance wavered Monday as drops in real-estate, utility and telecom shares proved too strong for the market to shake off.

China faces refinancing crunch with $2.7tn of bonds bearing down – FT

China’s $4tn bond market faces a refinancing challenge over the next five years as more than half of the outstanding debt matures, heightening concerns over default risk by some borrowers. A test for many borrowers is that new debt will be more expensive given a higher interest rate environment. Higher servicing costs are expected to weigh on some borrowers, given the scale of China’s debt binge in recent years.

London’s Bankers Haven’t Been This Gloomy Since 2008 – Bloomberg

Sentiment among London’s Brexit-hit bankers sank to its gloomiest depths since the 2008 financial crisis, a survey showed — a stark contrast to the bullish tone of finance executives gathered last week in Davos, Switzerland.

Chinese Investors Keep Losing Billions Online. Here’s Why. – The New York Times

Online investing in China isn’t for the vulnerable or the naïve — but frequently, that’s exactly who it draws. The $5 billion flameout last week of the popular online investment portal Qianbao is the latest in a string of collapses that has devastated small investors and prompted Beijing to take steps to tamp down on potential unrest.

China’s HNA tries to navigate turbulent times – FT

Its $146bn in global assets range from airports to trucking companies, shipping groups and stakes in Deutsche Bank and the Hilton hotel chain. But it is the company’s stretched finances, and questions over its ultimate ownership, that have brought it to international attention in recent months. The case illustrates how a particularly Chinese mix of debt and politics can affect markets far from its shores.

Daily Shot – WSJ

Speculative net long positions in euro futures and crude oil futures have reached historically extreme levels.

18F30 - EURO SPEC POSITIONS

18F30 - CRUDE SPEC POSITIONS

TOP

MACRO OP-EDS, INSIGHT, EVENTS AND TRENDS

Weak dollar could play into hands of both China and the US – FT

There is a case that both the US and China will get what they want out of this episode of dollar weakness. If so, we may once again be surprised at the resilience of global asset markets and activity. That is the most likely scenario. If trade sparring becomes an all out ruckus, the broad weaker-dollar trade becomes a more narrow safe-haven trade, and we will have bigger problems than currencies to worry about.

Making Sense of Bitcoin and Its Wild Price Ride – Bloomberg

The initial price of Bitcoin, set in 2010, was less than 1 cent. It crossed $19,000 last month. Since then, events have reminded the world that it’s wild ride involves downs as well as ups, as it fell to about $11,400. The ups have been driven by investors anxious to get in on the best-established cryptocurrency as new trading opportunities nudge it toward the mainstream. South Korea’s plan to ban cryptocurrencies contributed to the recent slump. News of a heist of $500 million worth of a different digital currency called NEM in Japan isn’t likely to help. This may also prompt regulators around the globe to rethink their rules.

Move Over, Groundhog; the Bear Holds a Lot of Market Answers – Bloomberg

It has been almost nine years since the last U.S. bear market, as defined by a 20 percent or more decline in the S&P 500 Index. That’s the second-longest stretch without one since 1928, according to Yardeni Research Inc. Only the period from December 1987 to March 2000 was longer. That’s a long time for questions to pile up that can only be answered by the next downturn.

Bill Gates – My new favorite book of all time – Gatesnotes

For years, I’ve been saying Steven Pinker’s The Better Angels of Our Nature was the best book I’d read in a decade. If I could recommend just one book for anyone to pick up, that was it. Pinker uses meticulous research to argue that we are living in the most peaceful time in human history. I’d never seen such a clear explanation of progress. I’m going to stop talking up Better Angels so much, because Pinker has managed to top himself. His new book, Enlightenment Now, is even better.

When Russian Officials ‘Nightmare’ Your Business, You Can Lose Everything—Even Your Life – Bloomberg

There are far fewer cases of political persecution in Russia than of lawless prosecutions that bring down businessmen and professionals who have never challenged the government of President Vladimir Putin. There is even a cottage industry in girding company owners and their employees for a legal assault, the sort of hostile-environment training that executives and journalists working in dangerous places are given.

America rejects the world it made – FT

“You break it, you own it,” runs the pottery shop slogan. But when it comes to the global rules-based order, the Trump administration’s view seems to be, “We no longer own it, so we are going to break it.” America is turning against the world it made — and the consequences are unpredictable and potentially dangerous.

Utopic Wellness Communities Are A Multibillion-Dollar Real Estate Trend – Fast Company

Wellness communities like Serenbe increasingly attract homeowners looking for a refuge from modern life. In North America alone, the market is worth $52.5 billion and is growing by 6.4% annually, according to a new report by the Global Wellness Institute titled Build Well to Live Well: Wellness Lifestyle Real Estate and Communities. Wellness real estate was a $134 billion worldwide industry in 2017, and is expected to grow to $180 billion in 2022.

Money for nothing? Finns tot up value of basic income experiment – FT

The two-year Finnish trial is at its halfway stage and there is already anecdotal evidence that basic income has helped reduce stress among participants by easing the requirements of benefits bureaucracy. But there are also increasing doubts about the trial itself and whether it offers a viable example of how basic income could work.

TOP

CENTRAL BANKS & MONETARY POLICY

Knot Says QE Program Must End ‘As Soon As Possible’ – Bloomberg

The European Central Bank has to end its quantitative easing as soon as possible, according to ECB Governing Council member Klaas Knot, who said there’s not a single reason anymore to continue with the program. “The program has done what could realistically be expected of it,” Knot, who also heads the Dutch Central Bank, said in an interview on the television talk show Buitenhof on Sunday.

Powell Era Arrives as Fed’s Gradual Pace Looks Ripe for Rethink – Bloomberg

As Janet Yellen prepares to step aside as the Federal Reserve chair this week and hand the levers of monetary policy to Powell, her gradual approach to interest-rate hikes aimed at countering a fragile recovery and low inflation looks increasingly timid. The leadership transition at the world’s most powerful monetary authority comes just in time for a fresh approach.

Simmering US economy carries perils for Powell – FT

“We shouldn’t underestimate how perilous the situation is,” said Seth Carpenter, chief US economist at UBS. “You have massive tax cuts and potentially very large increase in federal spending coming; when the unemployment rate is already very low and inflation is already rising — which is a largely unprecedented situation. You also have continually easing financial conditions. This point in the cycle is the most difficult for monetary policymakers to manage.”

Goldman Thinks This Fed Meeting May Not Be a Sleeper After All – Bloomberg

Far from being a complete nonevent, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. expects a slightly hawkish upgrade of language at the Federal Reserve meeting this week, slated to be Janet Yellen’s last. Inflation remains below target, but measures of it have firmed recently and “we think many Committee members will view the core inflation rebound in recent months as additional evidence that last year’s shortfall largely reflected temporary, idiosyncratic factors,” the report said.

TOP

USA ECONOMY DATA, CITIES AND STATES

Most Americans Can’t Afford A Minor Emergency | HuffPost

Most Americans can’t afford even a minor emergency, according to a recent report from Bankrate, a website that provides financial advice. Of those surveyed, just 39 percent of respondents said they’d be able to cover an unexpected $1,000 bill with funds from their savings. Most of the other respondents said they would have no choice but to accrue debt ― by paying with a credit card, borrowing from family and friends, or getting a loan.

With Stocks Surging, Americans Are Saving at 12-Year Low – WSJ

The U.S. household saving rate dropped in December to its lowest level since the height of the 2000s housing boom, when many Americans were drawing on rising equity in their homes to spend on vacations, new cars, appliances and more. Previous busts—in the mid-2000s and the late-1990s—were preceded by periods of rising asset values and especially low saving.

18F30 - SAVINGS RETRENCHMENT

Americans Cut Savings to a 12-Year Low – Bloomberg

The drop matters because consumers make up roughly 70 percent of the economy and they can only push savings down so far before it impacts their ability to keep spending, which in turn fuels U.S. growth.

US mortgage slowdown prompts jobs alert – FT

Thousands of jobs in the US mortgage sector have been put at risk as lenders prepare for the weakest year for refinancings since the turn of the century. The drop in demand comes as interest rates rise and threaten to squeeze a sector that employs an estimated 450,000 people across the country at banks and specialist lenders.

TOP

GLOBAL ECONOMY, INTERNATIONAL

Global Stocks Roar Into 2018, Making Some Investors Even More Nervous – WSJ

The gains have put some investors on edge, intensifying analysts’ concerns about the rising price of buying into a bull market almost nine years old. The rallies have also drawn comparisons to the 2000 Nasdaq peak, when a mania for technology stocks drove the index to a level that it wouldn’t recapture for more than a dozen years.

Global bond market sell-off gains pace – FT

The global bond market sell-off deepened on Monday, lifting the 10-year US Treasury yield above 2.7 per cent for the first time in nearly four years and sparking concerns that the roaring stock market rally could be vulnerable to a reversal. Mounting optimism over the strength of the world economy has buoyed equities, which have enjoyed their best start to a year since 1987, but stirred concerns that long-dormant inflation might finally make a comeback and force central banks to turn more aggressive.

Euro Area Looks Strong But Weak as Economy Powers On in 2018 – Bloomberg

The euro area is set to start the new year the way it ended the old: the economy is strong but inflation is weak. The region’s fastest growth in a decade will be confirmed this week in a burst of data that should also show economic confidence at the highest since the currency bloc’s early days, unemployment at a post-crisis low, and manufacturing continuing to boom. Yet inflation, the key metric for the European Central Bank, will probably be the slowest in six months.

China Infrastructure Push Reaches Arctic, Leaving Out U.S. – Bloomberg

With the addition of the Arctic and Latin America last week, Chinese President Xi Jinping’s signature Belt and Road Initiative has become truly global. Only the U.S., its neighbor Canada and ally Japan have yet to be included in the plan, which seeks to build or upgrade a network of highways, railways, ports and pipelines.

TOP

POSITIONING, INFLECTION, MARKET CALLS

Enjoy this cyclical emerging market rally while it lasts – EM

It has been a blistering start to the year for emerging markets. Yet this is happening in a world where the odds may appear stacked against EMs. The commodities supercycle is a distant memory and EMs have found no new growth engine to take its place. US interest rates are rising as quantitative easing gives way to quantitative tightening. The Trump administration is preparing a multi-pronged assault on the international trading system in which the biggest losers would be EM exporters.

Goldman Gauge of Market Health Flashing Green for Economy Growth – Bloomberg

Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s index of financial conditions broke through its internet bubble trough to reach a record low Monday, signaling that the economy may be poised to pick up steam. The index tracks changes in interest rates, credit spreads, equity prices, and the value of the greenback, with a lower reading suggesting expansion lies ahead.

18F30 - FINANCIAL CONDITIONS INDEX

TOP

COLOR, EARNINGS, SENTIMENT, VALUATIONS

Apple set to break its own record for profitability – FT

Apple executives said in November they were expecting its “biggest quarter ever” and a return to double-digit revenue growth during the holiday season for the first time in years. The US corporate earnings season is in full swing this week with other tech leaders including Amazon, Facebook and Alphabet also expected to report higher revenues and profits.

Apple shares skid on report of iPhone X production cut – Reuters

Apple executives said in November they were expecting its “biggest quarter ever” and a return to double-digit revenue growth during the holiday season for the first time in years. The US corporate earnings season is in full swing this week with other tech leaders including Amazon, Facebook and Alphabet also expected to report higher revenues and profits.

MetLife shares fall 10% on ‘material weakness’ warning – FT

Shares in MetLife dropped almost 10 per cent on Monday after the insurance and pensions group warned of “material weakness” in its financial reporting, forcing it to boost its reserves by about $550m. Regulators including at the Securities and Exchange Commission and the New York Department of Financial Services are probing the matter, the company said.

TOP

DEALS, MERGERS, IPOs, LBOs, RESTRUCTURINGS

Keurig to Acquire Dr Pepper Snapple in Largest Soft-Drink Deal Ever – WSJ

The combination gives Keurig, best known for its K-Cup coffee systems, an express lane to get its bottled coffee drinks into coolers at convenience stores, drugstores and other retailers.

VMware Plunges on Report It May Acquire Dell in Reverse Merger – Bloomberg

VMware Inc. plunged after CNBC reported that it’s considering acquiring Dell Technologies in a reverse merger, bringing Dell back to public markets in what could be the industry’s biggest deal ever.

Michael Dell Weighs Combining Tech Businesses Into One – Bloomberg

After years of creative corporate structures and financial maneuvering, Michael Dell is finally ready to bring all the pieces of his technology empire under one, publicly traded roof. The billionaire’s ultimate goal is to create a structure that would help his two companies, Dell Technologies Inc. and VMware Inc., better manage a massive debt load, according to people familiar with the matter.

TOP

HEDGE FUNDS, PRIVATE EQUITY, MONEY MGMT

Ackman’s Pershing Square’s Total Assets Fell 20 Percent in 2017 – Bloomberg

Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square Capital Management reported a net loss of 4 percent on its investments in 2017, with assets under management falling by almost $10 billion over the past two years. Pershing Square has suffered from an exodus of money out of hedge funds — particularly the poorer performers — as investors move to cheaper passive products.

How the Finance Industry Is Trying to Cash In on #MeToo – The New York Times

Accusations of sexual harassment have felled dozens of executives, but in one quiet corner of the financial world, the #MeToo movement looks like a golden opportunity. Companies that offer money to plaintiffs in anticipation of future legal settlements are racing to capitalize on sexual harassment lawsuits. That is setting off alarms in some quarters because the industry, like payday lenders, has a history of providing cash at exorbitant interest rates to customers who need the money for living and sometimes medical expenses.

As Scaramucci Puts Hedge Fund Event on Ice, a New Show Emerges – Bloomberg

“It is absolutely an attempt to fill the void,” Context Capital’s Chief Executive Ron Biscardi said in an interview Monday. “We think with SALT not happening this year, it does leave a void on the thought-leadership side.”

Asset management’s fight for ‘alternative data’ analysts heats up – FT

Investment groups have more than quadrupled their number of “alternative data” analysts over the past five years, as asset managers scramble to unlock the potential of trading signals contained in website scrapes, language analysis, credit card purchases and satellite data.

Vanguard warns of strengthening ‘predators’ in ETF market

Vanguard fears that ‘’predators’’ are taking advantage of exchange traded funds at the expense of retail investors and hopes that an expected overhaul by US regulators will not mandate perfect transparency for the booming $4.8tn industry. Tim Buckley, who took over at Vanguard this month, likens the predicament faced by ETF providers to the children’s tale of Little Red Riding Hood, who told the wolf where she was going, allowing him to take a shortcut to devour her unsuspecting grandmother.

Wall Street to Vanguard: We’re Not Your Doormat – WSJ

Large financial firms including Fidelity Investments, TD Ameritrade and Morgan Stanley have all made changes to their fees or product lineups that make it more expensive for some customers to invest in Vanguard’s funds. The changes made so far are small and have occurred in several different corners of the investing market, but they represent a stark shift for an industry that has struggled to manage being both Vanguard’s partner and competitor.

TOP

ENERGY COMPANIES, NOCs, INDUSTRY

Canada’s Oil Producers, in Standoff With Railways, Sit Out Oil-Price Rally – WSJ

Hard-nosed negotiating by Canada’s big railway companies is preventing Canadian oil producers from cashing in on a world-wide oil price rally. As the price of oil has surged in recent months, hitting $66.25 a barrel on Friday, the price of Canadian crude pulled from the oil sands of Alberta has remained mired at lower levels. Canada’s oil was priced at a discount of roughly $28 to the benchmark, the largest spread since 2013.

Exxon to Spend $50 Billion in U.S. Over Next Five Years – WSJ

Exxon Mobil Corp. plans to spend $50 billion to expand its business in the U.S. in the next five years, investments that were “enhanced” by the American tax overhaul. Exxon Chief Executive Darren Woods made the announcement in a blog post, adding that the company was still studying whether the tax overhaul made additional investment more economically viable.

Rocky Road for Colorado Drillers as Regulatory Clampdown Looms – Bloomberg

Explorers like Extraction Oil & Gas Inc. and SRC Energy Inc., which are focused entirely on an oil and gas field northeast of Denver known as the D-J/Niobrara Basin, aren’t fully benefiting from soaring energy prices because of concerns about their future freedom to drill. Shares of those operators are undervalued, having gained only half as much in the last six months as geographically diverse drillers, said Welles Fitzpatrick of Suntrust Robinson Humphrey Inc.

TOP

COMMODITIES AGRICULTURE & SOFTS

Goldman Sachs Invests in Pea Milk Startup – Bloomberg

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. participated in a $65 million investment in Ripple Foods Inc., a little-known beverage company that makes a milk-like drink from yellow peas.

Top U.S. pig farm equipment maker expands in China amid modernization push

The largest U.S. maker of equipment for pig farms opened a new factory in China on Saturday, investing in its third plant in the world’s top hog market in a bet the country’s ambitious push into large-scale pig farming will bring a surge in demand.

Tyson Joins Bill Gates, Cargill to Invest in Lab-Meat Producer – Bloomberg

Tyson Foods Inc. is boosting its bet on meat that comes from the lab instead of the slaughterhouse. The investment adds to a string of high-profile backers for Memphis including Cargill Inc., Bill Gates and Richard Branson. The company will use the Tyson funds for product development.

TOP

POLLUTION, CLIMATE & ENVIRONMENT

Oxygen Levels in Oceans Are Dropping Dangerously | At the Edge | US News

Oxygen levels in oceans are dropping and all life – in the seas and on land – is at risk. “If you can’t breathe, nothing else matters. That pretty much describes it,” said the study’s lead author, Denise Breitburg, who is a marine ecologist at the Smithsonian Environmental Research Center. “As seas are losing oxygen, those areas are no longer habitable by many organisms,” she told the Associated Press.

TOP

BREXIT, SCOXIT, LONDON, UK ECONOMY

EU presses Britain to move first in setting out Brexit goals – FT

The EU warned Britain that it faced gridlock in trade talks unless it spelt out its Brexit goals as the minority UK government struggled to deal with a backlash from its own MPs over a transition out of the bloc.

Major Brexit supporter obtains Maltese passport – FT

One of the biggest advocates of a hard Brexit has obtained a Maltese passport, the Financial Times reported. New Zealand-born billionaire Christopher Chandler is behind Legatum, the London based think-tank that emerged as one of the most vocal advocates for Britain’s departure from the single market and the customs union.

Rail: frustration grows with Britain’s fragmented network – FT

“It’s very hard for people to travel around and not suffer from the cracks in the system,” says Christian Wolmar, a train historian. “It’s everything, from knowing who to buy a ticket from to the signalling failure that delays the train to the lack of information when your train is cancelled. It’s hard to know which is worse — fragmentation or privatisation — but I’d probably say fragmentation.”

The Government’s Own Brexit Analysis Says The UK Will Be Worse Off In Every Scenario Outside The EU – Buzzfeed

Exclusive: BuzzFeed News has seen a new Brexit impact assessment, which says leaving the EU will adversely hit almost every sector and every UK region.

Upbeat Michel Barnier plays superior Brexit hand – POLITICO

Michel Barnier, visibly confident and upbeat at a news conference shortly after EU27 ministers approved directives for the next phase of negotiations, effectively dictated the transition terms. His performance immediately drew objections from London, where officials insisted key elements of a transition deal were still up for grabs.

TOP

GEOPOLITICS, CRIME, TERRORISM

As Afghan Attacks Intensify, So Does Anger at Country’s Leaders – The New York Times

As the wait dragged on, the anxiousness of Mr. Nayel and many other family members grew into an anger that has become widespread across the city. Why is the government unable to protect a capital that is heavily militarized, with checkpoints and barriers at every roundabout — some even with bomb-sniffing dogs? How is it that insurgents can strike at will?

Attacks Reveal What U.S. Won’t: Victory Remains Elusive in Afghanistan – The New York Times

In his State of the Union address, President Trump is expected to promote his strategy to win the war in Afghanistan. He’ll be the third president to do so. “We’re fighting the same battle over and over again,” Senator Tammy Duckworth, Democrat of Illinois and a veteran of the Iraq war. “Our troops are losing their friends, they are shedding blood, over the same patch of ground, over and over again.”

Trump Condemns Taliban Role in Afghan Attacks, Says No Talks – Bloomberg

President Donald Trump told visiting members of the U.N. Security Council on Monday the U.S. would no longer talk with the Taliban following a recent string of deadly attacks in Afghanistan.

Mexico to send troops to stem violence after record 25,000 murders – Reuters

Mexican officials said on Sunday the government was set to unleash a new wave of troops to crack down on criminal groups in regions where a surge in violence led to more than 25,000 murders last year.

Pakistan turns to Russia and China after US military aid freeze – FT

Pakistan is deepening its relationships with Russia and China, the country’s defence minister has said, as the fallout continues from the US decision to suspend $2bn in military aid to Islamabad.

Russian jet flies within 5 feet of US Navy plane, Pentagon says – CNNPolitics

A Russian Su-27 jet performed an unsafe intercept of a US Navy surveillance plane while it was flying in international airspace over the Black Sea Monday, three defense officials told CNN.

TOP

PRIVACY, HACKING, CYBERWAR, SURVEILLANCE STATE

Strava Fitness App Can Reveal Military Sites, Analysts Say – The New York Times

A global map published by the company shows users’ movements and is said to expose data about bases and personnel, including those of U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria.

TOP

PROPAGANDA, CORRUPTION, AUTHORITARIANISM

Russia’s Youth Takes the Lead in Countrywide Protests Against Putin – Moscow Times

In more than one hundred cities across the country, Russians took to the streets in support of opposition politician Alexei Navalny’s call for what he has termed a “voters’ strike.” Navalny called for the boycott earlier in January after being barred from registering as a candidate due to a prior criminal conviction his supporters see as a political ploy.

Russia Is Banned From Paralympics, Again, for Doping – The New York Times

The International Paralympic Committee said that it would not restore the nation’s team to compete at the Pyeongchang Games, but that some athletes could compete as individuals.

Saudi crackdown draws to a close leaving battered image – FT

Shares in Kingdom Holding Company soared on Sunday after Prince Alwaleed bin Talal, its billionaire owner, returned to his palace in Riyadh almost three months since his arrest and detention over corruption allegations.

This Country’s Democracy Has Fallen Apart — And It Played Out To Millions On Facebook

Facebook was supposed to open up societies like Cambodia. But it’s doing just the opposite — with disastrous consequences for its fragile politics.

TOP

TRUMP WORLD

72 percent of Republicans think Trump is ‘a good role model for children’ – The Week

A new poll published Thursday found that 72 percent of Republican voters feel that President Trump “is a good role model for children.” Every other category, meanwhile — be it race, age group, or gender — strongly disagreed with that assessment.

‘He’s not God’: In the wake of porn-star allegations, most evangelicals stand by Trump – The Washington Post

White evangelical Protestants remain the president’s strongest base of support even amid continuing moral controversies.

Rep. Matt Gaetz Goes On Infowars To Complain About Being Called A Conspiracy Theorist | Right Wing Watch

Rep. Matt Gaetz of Florida appeared on conspiracy theory outlet Infowars to complain that he is being called a conspiracy theorist for pushing the narrative that a secret memo by the chairman of the House Intelligence Committee proves that the Obama administration improperly sought to spy on Donald Trump and his presidential campaign.

Brits Plan Massive Protest For Donald Trump’s Visit To London | HuffPost

“It’s just been announced: Donald Trump is coming to Britain on a visit later this year. Let’s be ready ― and be prepared to take to the streets in the most incredible protest in our history,” said the post. By Sunday night, the page had some 22,000 people signed up to take to the streets, with another 62,000 marked as “interested.”

Spicer regrets embarrassing his friends and family | New York Post

“Did I make mistakes? Absolutely,” Spicer said Monday in an interview with MSNBC. “I regret things that I did that brought embarrassment to myself, my family, friends of mine who have been very big supporters,” he added.

Jared Kushner Played a Role in Guy Fieri’s Restaurant Closure – Eater NY

Turns out President Trump son-in-law and senior advisor Jared Kushner was Guy Fieri’s landlord at the now-shuttered Guy’s American Kitchen & Bar — and high rents reportedly led to the Times Square restaurant’s late December shutter in the struggling building.

TOP

ELECTORAL POLITICS

History and Polling Point To Sweeping Democratic House Gains in 2018 – Bloomberg

History, demographics and the national mood are pointing to one conclusion about the 2018 congressional races: Democrats are well-positioned to bring one-party government in Washington under Donald Trump’s presidency to a screeching halt.

Koch Network to Tap $400 Million Lode for Ads to Sway 2018 Vote – Bloomberg

The conservative political network led by billionaires Charles and David Koch is planning an early advertising blitz to try to help Republicans hold majorities in Congress in the 2018 midterms.

GOP Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen Won’t Run in 2018 – WSJ

Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen, chairman of the powerful House Appropriations Committee, said he wouldn’t seek re-election, making him the latest in a parade of senior House Republicans and committee leaders heading to the exits.

Powerful Ally of Xi Jinping Makes Political Comeback in China – The New York Times

In China, the vice presidency is a relatively weak position, and the current holder of the job, Li Yuanchao, has left barely any imprint. But in previous decades, the job was held by powerful politicians who influenced policy and supported the top leader.

Putin Sells Russian Voters on Economic Turnaround, Even a Small One – WSJ

Vladimir Putin is taking credit for the Russian economy’s emergence from recession as he travels the country ahead of a March presidential election that is almost certain to extend his 18-year rule.

Senate Plans Vote on Bill Banning Abortions After 20 Weeks – WSJ

The Senate is set to consider a bill criminalizing abortions after 20 weeks of pregnancy, a vote almost certain to fail but which may force red-state Democrats to take sides on the issue.

We’ve Never Seen Congressional Resignations Like This Before | FiveThirtyEight

On Jan. 15, Pat Tiberi became the 12th member of the 115th Congress to resign from office. If that feels like a lot, that’s because it is; it’s the most people who have resigned from Congress through this point in the session in at least 117 years.

TOP

SCANDALS, LAWSUITS, FINES, REGULATORY

US regulator fines European banks for ‘spoofing’ – FT

Three European banks have been fined a total of over $40m to settle US charges of “spoofing” futures markets, extending the efforts of regulators to crack down on the illegal trading practice. Spoofing involves placing bogus orders to create the illusion of substantial supply or demand, which moves prices. Computers then cancel the orders before they can be executed, allowing the spoofer to exploit the manipulation for their own gain.

Volkswagen Apologizes for Testing of Diesel Fumes on Monkeys – Bloomberg

The controversy over Volkswagen AG’s diesel-emissions cheating took another twist when the carmaker apologized for a test that exposed monkeys to engine fumes to study effects of the exhaust.

TOP

BANKS, BROKERS, INSURANCE, EXCHANGES

Banks Pay Big Bucks for Top Billing on College Campuses – WSJ

Colleges and universities are in the business of education. Increasingly, they are also in the business of banking. Banks like Wells Fargo, PNC and U.S. Bancorp have signed scores of deals with schools nationwide that essentially make the universities their sales representatives.

TOP

RETAIL APPAREL, SPECIALTY, DINING, BIG BOX

How Amazon Benefits From Losing Cities’ HQ2 Bids – The New York Times

Amazon asked every city and state applying for its second headquarters for details about local resources, like available talent and transit options. Local officials were also prodded for tips on local education programs and tax incentives. The answers — most of which have not been released publicly — essentially do Amazon’s homework for it, providing valuable information that the company otherwise would have needed to dig up on its own or obtain through one-on-one negotiations.

McDonald’s Traffic Rises After New Dollar Menu Debut – Bloomberg

McDonald’s Corp. is seeing a jump in customers, a sign its new Dollar Menu is attracting penny pinchers. “It’s the power of a value offering,” said Dave Jenkins, managing director of customer solutions at Datassential in Chicago, referring to McDonald’s share gains over the past three weeks.

Panera debuts service to help restaurants ‘clean up’ their menus – FT

Panera Bread Co, a pioneer in serving “clean” restaurant food, has started a consulting service to help other chains remove artificial preservatives, sweeteners, flavors and colors from menus.

TOP

MEDIA, CABLE, SPORTS, ENTERTAINMENT

Bruno Mars sweeps top awards at Grammys – FT

Mr Mars and Kendrick Lamar were the big winners at the ceremony, scoring six and five awards respectively to cap off a year dominated by hip-hop and R&B as digital streaming dominates music’s biggest market.

Grammy Awards Draw Lowest TV Audience Since 2009 – WSJ

The Grammy Awards struck a sour note with viewers on Sunday, with fewer than 20 million tuning in to watch the CBS broadcast, a 24% decline from last year’s show and the smallest number since 2009.

Cleveland Indians Will Abandon Chief Wahoo Logo Next Year – The New York Times

The logo has long been the source of anguish and frustration for those who consider it offensive, outdated and racist, but for many of the team’s fans it is a cherished insignia — a divide that has played out at all levels of sports in recent years with teams featuring such nicknames and insignias.

Troubled Los Angeles Times Picks New Editor Amid Unrest – The New York Times

Jim Kirk, the former publisher of The Chicago Sun-Times, will take over as editor in chief. He will replace Lewis D’Vorkin, whose tenure roiled the newsroom.

TOP

AUTOS, ELECTRIC, SELF-DRIVING

Alibaba, Foxconn Invest $350 Million in Chinese Car Startup – Bloomberg

Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and Foxconn Technology Group led a new fundraising round by electric carmaker Xiaopeng Motors, investing 2.2 billion yuan ($350 million) in the startup as a push toward battery-powered vehicles intensifies.

Driven by Electric-Vehicle Demand, Firms Focus on Cobalt – WSJ

Booming demand for cellphone and electric-vehicle batteries has created a once-unthinkable metals-industry player: the pure cobalt company. Cobalt prices have risen 270% on the London Metal Exchange to about $80,000 a metric ton since early 2016, creating an opening for companies to specialize in a metal once seen as a waste product. Cobalt is now valued for its ability to withstand the intense heat generated by lithium-ion batteries.

Elon Musk Is Selling Flamethrowers – Bloomberg

The bizarre side venture has already generated $5 million for his tunnel business. The danger of selling a fire-emitting device and the lighthearted way Musk is treating the topic raised questions about whether it’s a joke and the legality of selling such a weapon online. The company says it’s serious.

Tesla in talks with Chile’s SQM over lithium investment – FT

The Elon Musk-led carmaker could agree to build a processing plant in Chile to produce the high-quality lithium it needs for its batteries, Eduardo Bitran, the executive vice-president of Chilean development agency Corfo, told the Financial Times. If successful, the deal would mark Tesla’s first foray into securing battery raw materials, which have soared in price due to the growing popularity of electric cars.

TOP

AIRLINES, SHIPPERS, RAIL, TRANSPORTS

Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum To Get New Name After Deal With United Airlines – WSJ

The Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, a city landmark and historic venue for both sports and music, will become the United Airlines Memorial Coliseum in a $69 million deal struck between the airline and the coliseum’s operator, the University of Southern California, according to people familiar with the agreement.

TOP

AEROSPACE, MILITARY & DEFENSE

SpaceX’s New Beast of a Rocket Is Go for Launch – Bloomberg

The Falcon Heavy—the most powerful operational rocket in the world—could launch for the first time as soon as Feb. 6. Musk’s message on Twitter over the weekend specifying a launch date anticipated a public turnout in Cape Canaveral, Florida: “Easy viewing from the public causeway,” he wrote. The spectacle has even tempted a five-year-old fanboy into begging Musk for tickets, and the Kennedy Space Center reported a website jam as would-be watchers scrambled to buy their way in.

TOP

LUXURY, HIGH END, ASPIRATIONAL

New Wave of Chinese Shoppers Splurges on Luxury Goods – WSJ

A new wave of big-spending Chinese shoppers has emerged to drive the global luxury-goods industry, igniting torrid sales growth after two years of cautious Chinese buying. Luxury-goods purchases by Chinese shoppers jumped 12% last year to €84 billion ($104 billion), according to consulting firm Bain & Co., with their share of the global total rising to 32% from 30% in 2016. Analysts say the pickup in spending could even accelerate this year.

TOP

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE, DRONES, FUTURE TECH

Microsoft and Google prepare for big leaps in quantum computing

Two scientific milestones are expected to be announced in the coming weeks by two of the world’s biggest technology companies that will highlight the rapid advances now being made in the field. But whether they also point to useful commercial applications in the near term is another matter.

MIT discover low frequency beta rhythms in the brain determine what memories you store and those your brain clears out

“The beta rhythm acts like a brake, controlling when to express information held in working memory and allow it to influence behavior,” says Mikael Lundqvist, a postdoc at MIT’s Picower Institute for Learning and Memory and the lead author of the study.

TOP

SCIENCE, NATURE, PSYCHOLOGY

Cloning breakthrough heralds China’s scientific rise

Unhindered by regulation, the country’s researchers excel in controversial biotech. While the US still spends more than any other nation on basic science — $86bn in 2015 — the OECD estimates China will outspend its rival on R&D by 2019. When it comes to science and technology, the sun is most assuredly rising in the east.

Mars Curiosity Rover Sends Back More Incredible Photos of the Red Planet

The cameras the rover uses to take its amazing images of Mars run the gamut from its Mast Camera, which takes HD video and can analyze light patterns, the Mars Hand Lens Imager, which allows for extreme close-ups of the planet’s geological formations, and a variety of navigational cameras that allow Curiosity to see where it’s going, among other high-tech gear.

18F30 - MARS TERRAIN

TOP

HEALTH, PRODUCTIVITY AND WELLNESS

E-Cigarettes May Lead to Cancer and Heart Disease, New Study Finds – Bloomberg

E-cigarette users are possibly putting themselves at risk for developing heart disease, lung and bladder cancers, according to a new report. The findings, though preliminary, indicate that the devices—which aerosolize nicotine and contain no tobacco—may not be as safe as previously assumed.

TOP

MISCELLANEOUS

How to Watch the Super Blue Blood Moon – Bloomberg

A rare super blue blood moon is set to occur this Wednesday, Jan. 31, and stargazers are right to be (excuse the pun) over the moon about it. To understand their excitement, you’ll need to understand what’s happening, exactly. Even though the phrase “once in blue moon” suggests they’re rare, blue moons—the second full moon in a one-month period—are relatively frequent, taking place once every 2.7 years. Supermoons are full moons that occur at the closest possible point to Earth, making them appear slightly bigger and brighter, and grace us once every 14 months. And blood moons, also known as total lunar eclipses, take place about twice a year when the moon passes through the Earth’s shadow, turning it an eerie, copper-hued color. But to have all three happen at the same time? It hasn’t happened since 1866.

Roger Federer Again? It’s Getting Crazy – WSJ

Last year we were calling this a Federer revival. I don’t think it’s a revival anymore. It’s a whole new chapter—Federer re-writing the rules for what’s possible for an aging player in Open-era men’s singles. And Federer isn’t simply the Last Man Standing. He’s very clearly playing better tennis than he was a few years ago. He switched up equipment, remodeled his game—shortening points, and turning his elegant one-handed backhand into a devastating weapon.

Inside Amazon’s Giant Spheres, Where Workers Chill in a Mini Rainforest – Bloomberg

From the outside, the three connected spheres resemble a glass-and-steel sculpture of a triple-scoop sundae. The biggest sphere is 90 feet high and 130 feet wide. Inside, visitors first notice the warm, moist air, about 72 degrees and 60 percent humidity, compared with the 30 percent humidity in a typical office. Eyeglasses fog over and sweat beads on foreheads while bodies adjust. Just inside the doors is a five-story “living wall” cascading with greenery. The climate varies throughout so visitors can find a “micro-climate” to their liking.

18F30 - AMAZON SPHERES

TOP

The Mercenary Trader Macro Links were created by Justice “Jack” Litle, aka Justice Litle / Jack Litle — the founder of Mercenary Trader — to provide a compact summary of daily information flows. They are accessed via the Mercenary Research Suite, the flagship offering of Mercenary Trader, which combines trading education and trading research. To see how it works, click here.



MEMBER UPDATES HOME
Recent updates and the latest member content.
>> CLICK HERE to access <<

SIR ARCHIVE
The Strategic Intelligence Report, containing the Intermarket View, Macro View, Tactical View and portfolio.
>> CLICK HERE to access <<

MACRO LINKS ARCHIVE
A daily curated, clickable summary of news, data, insights and opinion across the market spectrum.
>> CLICK HERE to access <<

ANALYSIS ARCHIVE
Analysis write-ups, concise and chart-driven, with updates on new setups and position adjustments.
>> CLICK HERE to access <<

METHODOLOGY ARCHIVE
Ongoing tutorials and explanatory materials in respect to pyramiding, position sizing, portfolio management, and more.
>> CLICK HERE to access <<

PSYCHOLOGY ARCHIVE
Ongoing research and insights into personal psychology, crowd psychology, sentiment, behavioral analysis and more.
>> CLICK HERE to access <<

PRODUCTIVITY ARCHIVE
Ideas, insights and research into more efficient use of time, energy and mental focus for enhanced personal performance.
>> CLICK HERE to access <<

METAPROCESS ARCHIVE
Our proprietary toolset for cultivating superhuman performance via behavior adjustments and mental modeling.
>> CLICK HERE to access <<

THEORY + MODELS ARCHIVE
Ideas, concepts and areas of exploration to better understand markets, probability, human behavior, finance and more.
>> CLICK HERE to access <<

SPECIAL REPORTS ARCHIVE
An evolving look into specific market areas — e.g. a country, currency, commodity, industry, company, technology or trend.
>> CLICK HERE to access <<

PREMIUM REPORTS ARCHIVE
Unique and one-off collections of trading resources, interviews with top traders, deep dive topical investigations, and more.
>> CLICK HERE to access <<